Conditional Probability
You've tested positive for a rare and deadly cancer that afflicts 1 out of 1000 people, based on a test that is 99% accurate. What are the chances that you actually have the cancer? By the end of this video, you'll be able to answer this question! This video is part of the Probability and Statistics video series. Many natural and social phenomena are probabilistic in nature. Engineers, scientists, and policymakers often use probability to model and predict system behavior. Hi, my name is Sam Watson, and I'm a graduate student in mathematics at MIT. Before watching this video, you should be familiar with basic probability vocabulary and the definition of conditional probability. After watching this video, you'll be able to: Calculate the conditional probability of a given event using tables and trees; and Understand how conditional probability can be used to interpret medical diagnoses. Suppose that in front of you are two bowls, labeled A and B. Each bowl ...