Unit 2 The Forecast is Always wrong, Video 3 Porcupine Graphs
[SQUEAKING][RUSTLING][CLICKING] RICHARD DE NEUFVILLE: Right. Richard de Neufville here again. Pleasure to talk with you, and for this session, I'm going to talk about porcupine graphs. It's all part of this topic of the forecast being always wrong, not every single time, but in general, we can't count on it being right. And we just expect it, the reality that we face during the-- our project lifetime is not what we anticipated. Now, what's a porcupine graph? Well, let me first describe what a porcupine animal is in case you don't know it or haven't seen it. The porcupine is a North American animal. It maybe exists elsewhere also. I think it does, but I'm not an expert in the area. But the important thing about a porcupine is that it is an animal, four-footed, small, about the size of a small dog, and it has a lot of spikes on it that go up from its back. And as you can see in this example here, they go all back in a variety of ways in many diff...